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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2019-05-12T19:54:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2019-05-12T19:54Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/14748/-1
CME Note: There is no clear signature arrival for this specific CME. The arrival attributed to the 2019-05-13T16:09Z CME is also very weak and difficult to be certain about it.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2019-05-16T07:25Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/14751/1
Model Inputs:
2019-05-12T19:54:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-15.0, Lat.=-15.0, Speed=528.0, HalfAngle=26.0, Time21.5=2019-05-13T02:33Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2019-05-16T07:25Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =23.4 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.5
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190513_023300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190513_023300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190513_023300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190513_023300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190513_023300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190513_023300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190513_023300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190513_023300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190513_023300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190513_023300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190513_023300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190513_023300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190513_023300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190513_023300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Spitz_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190513_023300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190513_023300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 66.22 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Ethan Robinett (CUA) on 2019-05-13T13:12Z

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